Can Revolution Ever Happen In Nigeria?

Can Revolution Ever Happen In Nigeria? 

Revolution is as far back as the history of man itself. It is a very useful weapon of political, economic, social, spiritual and cultural change. It is religious, social and political upheaval from the masses which may lead to a violent or mild overthrow of a government and establishment of new socio order.

For millions of years, human societies have experienced revolutions at different times and in different dimensions yet there is always an underlining message when a revolution happens: the masses are unhappy or dissatisfied with the leading class.

The major causes of revolutions are poverty, underdevelopment, religious tensions, social and political upheavals and violation of fundamental human rights. There are many other reasons but the ones mentioned above are part of the major ones.

Simply put, a revolution is like a war that happens within a country. It is usually a war between the leaders and the followers. It is different from a civil war. A civil war is a war involving some parts or some sets of people in a country fighting against other parts or the government.  

Many of the countries in the world today that are considered to be great have fought their own wars and in one way or the other experienced their own revolutions. For instance, United States of America revolted against the imperial and colonial British Empire from 1775-1783 until they gained independence. China, Russia, Germany etc. have fought their own wars to arrive at where they all are today.

Even in Africa here, there have been many revolutions. There was the Algerian revolution in 1954, Angolan War of Independence in 1961, Egyptian Revolution 1919, another Egyptian revolution in 1952 and 2011. Let’s not forget Libyan’s civil war in the year 2011 which led to the ultimate removal of their lifelong president; Muammar Gadaffi. We must not also forget the Arab Spring; a series of revolutions that rocked countries like Tunisia, Morocco, Syria, Libya, Egypt and Bahrain from 2010 to 2012 which led to the overthrowing of some leaders in those countries and consequent readjustment of policies and governance. All these things happened very close to Nigeria but none affected us.

So the question is, can a revolution happen in Nigeria? The answer is most likely no. Though Nigeria has been through a series of bad leaders, bad governance, gross mismanagement of public funds, insecurity, a civil war (1967-70), economic meltdowns, election riggings, military rules, unemployment, political and religious crises and many other problems for the past sixty years, yet the chances of a revolution happening in Nigeria are very slim. There have been protests and agitations, call for restructuring and even secession attempts, yet Nigeria is very far from actualizing a revolutionary reality.

A revolution is usually spearheaded by a leader who is willing to face arrest, detention, torture and even death. This leader is the one who will aggregate the interest of the people and spur the masses into revolting against an established government. A revolutionary is quite useless without massive support from the masses. This is exactly why Nigeria will most likely not experience any real revolution. We are too divided to be united against a common enemy. The closest time the country has ever come to unite was in the case of the annulled 1993 presidential election when there was massive demonstration against the then government of Ibrahim Babangida. Before and after then, the country has always been to fragmented to form a formidable force against any government or leader.

Though there have been some radical individuals who wanted to leader or start a Nigerian revolution, yet lack of popular support had eventually broken their back bones before they even started. For instance, the popular pop singer Tu Face Idibia wanted to lead a protest against bad governance some years back but he called it off at the last moment for security reasons. It was believed that some unscrupulous elements could hijack the protest and wreak havoc. In the end, Tau Face would be held responsible for staging the rally in the first place, hence, his withdrawal at the last minute. 

One of the presidential candidates in the 2019 presidential election and the owner of Sahara reporters, Omoyele Sowore is another individual who has made concerted efforts at encouraging the people to protest against bad governance and corruption in the corridors of power. He did not receive enough support from the masses to start with; the few people he was able to gather in his clarion call for a revolution were disbanded, arrested and put in jail. Some of these people even claimed that they were maltreated while in DSS custody. This is how far Nigeria ever comes to a revolution. Our leaders are very smart; they keep us divided so that we will never be united to revolt against them. Lol. 

The most important thing we should ask ourselves as Nigerians is that do we really need a revolution? If yes, are we ready to pay the price? A revolution could be violent and very disruptive. It could lead to war and disintegration. A revolution could set us back years. Let’s not forget, Nigeria is still paying the price of the civil war that happened between 1967 and 1970. We are still suffering the consequences till date. If a (violent) revolution should occur in Nigeria, lives would be lost, ways of live would be disrupted, it will lead to break down of law and order, properties would be destroyed and there would be unprecedented rise in the cases of fundamental human rights abuses.

However, with the way things are going in Nigeria, people are getting frustrated and surviving is getting harder by the day. People are out of jobs and prices of things are skyrocketing. Nigeria is currently like a time bomb; it’s waiting for the slightest provocation to go BANG! It may happen earlier than expected if our leaders continued to siphon public funds into their personal accounts. It may happen soon if our leaders continued carting away millions monthly while many families cannot afford even a meal throughout the whole day. It may happen soon, if our leaders continued to flaunt their ill-gotten wealth by buying the latest cars, building mansions abroad, stowing stolen money in foreign bank accounts, going on foreign pleasure trips and throwing extravagant parties. The trigger may go off and things will change overnight. My fear is that when a sheep is forced to bite in defense or retaliation, it will bite more than a lion because it had been pushed to do what it was not created to do. Nigerians are the sheep. We have endured the hardest hardships imaginable, our leaders shouldn’t force our hands by their gullibility, corruption, recklessness and i-don’t-care-ism.